FARRINGTON REPORT

REPORT | AI Agents? Reshaping Business Strategy and the World of Money

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J.S. Farrington

AI Agents, Fintech Maturity & Economic Resilience: Landmark 2025–2026 Studies Reshaping Business Strategy and the World of Money

In early 2026, research on business and finance is surging with fresh insights into how artificial intelligence (AI), fintech evolution, banking adaptation, and macroeconomic forces are redefining value creation, risk management, and growth. Major reports from McKinsey, BCG, the World Economic Forum, Harvard Business School, the IMF, and NBER conferences paint a picture of rapid AI experimentation transitioning toward scaled impact—tempered by scaling hurdles—alongside resilient global growth amid trade and geopolitical tensions. These studies highlight a pivotal shift: organizations that redesign workflows, embrace agentic AI, and balance efficiency with innovation are pulling ahead, while traditional players in banking and finance must adapt or risk losing ground to nonbanks and digital disruptors.

The AI Surge: Widespread Adoption but Scaling Gaps Persist

The most comprehensive snapshot comes from McKinsey’s November 2025 Global Survey on AI (“The State of AI in 2025: Agents, innovation, and transformation”), based on nearly 2,000 respondents across 105 countries. Adoption has exploded: 88% of organizations now use AI regularly in at least one function (up from 78% the prior year), with over two-thirds applying it in multiple areas and half in three or more. Knowledge management, IT, marketing/sales, and customer operations lead usage, while strategy/corporate finance and product development show strong revenue-generating potential. Yet scaling remains the bottleneck—nearly two-thirds of organizations are still stuck in piloting or experimentation, with only about one-third achieving enterprise-wide rollout. Larger firms fare better (47% scaled among those with >$5B revenue vs. 29% for smaller ones). A standout trend is the rise of AI agents (autonomous systems for planning and executing workflows): 62% of organizations are experimenting, and 23% are scaling them in at least one function, primarily in IT and knowledge work. Value creation is emerging but modest so far. Most report use-case-level cost savings (especially in IT, software engineering, and manufacturing) and revenue lifts (marketing/sales, strategy/finance, product development), yet enterprise EBIT impact is typically under 5%, with only 39% attributing any measurable effect. High performers—roughly 6% of respondents seeing ≥5% EBIT gains—stand out: they are three times more likely to redesign workflows, pursue growth/innovation alongside efficiency, invest heavily (>20% of digital budgets in AI), and secure senior-leader ownership. These leaders also mitigate more risks (now averaging four per organization, up from two in 2022), including inaccuracy and explainability. A dedicated McKinsey CFO survey (102 respondents) underscores finance-specific momentum: 44% of finance teams used generative AI across more than five use cases in 2025 (up dramatically from 7% the year before), with 65% planning increased investment. Practical applications include scenario forecasting, automated reporting drafts, invoice compliance checks, real-time working-capital monitoring, and cost-root-cause analysis. Barriers persist—poor workflow integration, data issues, and change-management gaps—but the message is clear: rewiring processes, not just layering tools, unlocks real ROI.

Banking and Finance: Strong Returns Mask Structural Threats

BCG’s “The Future of Finance 2025: Fit for Growth, Built for Purpose” (May 2025) notes that global banks delivered impressive 30% total shareholder return (TSR) from mid-2023 to mid-2024, beating the broader market’s 19%. Profitability has recovered to pre-crisis levels and aligns with cost of equity in many regions. However, this masks deep vulnerabilities: secular fee-income decline, productivity stagnation, and value migration to neobanks, private credit, digital attackers, and payments platforms. Agentic AI is positioned as a potential game-changer for productivity and customer experience, yet BCG warns that nonbanks may capture disproportionate gains due to agility. Recommendations for incumbents include aggressive front-to-back digitization, laser-focused portfolios (divest or fix underperformers), customer-centric value pricing, AI strategies tied to high-impact financial goals, top-talent recruitment in tech/AI, and proactive regulator engagement for expanded activities. Without bold moves, banks risk further erosion in retail, corporate, and payments segments.

Fintech’s Maturing Era: From Hyper-Growth to Profitable Inclusion

The World Economic Forum’s second-edition “Future of Global Fintech” report (June 2025), surveying 240 fintech firms, signals a stabilizing yet healthy sector. Customer growth moderated to 37% (down from 55% previously), but revenue rose 40% and profits 39%, reflecting a shift toward sustainability over pure expansion. AI tops future priorities (74% of fintechs rate it “most relevant” for 2025–2030), followed by regional interoperability, embedded finance, and open banking/open finance. Sustainable/green finance ranks lower but remains relevant for niche growth. Collaboration with incumbents and focus on inclusion are rising, positioning fintech as a stabilizer for broader financial-system resilience.

Harvard Business School’s 2026 AI Roadmap: Change Fitness and Human-Centric Trade-Offs

HBS faculty forecasts emphasize that 2026 will test organizations’ “change fitness”—the capacity to adapt continuously at individual, team, and enterprise levels. Key trends include:

  • Redesigning workflows and roles (not just automating jobs) while building AI fluency and rewarding rapid learning.
  • Preserving work meaningfulness to avoid disengagement from overly efficient but hollow processes (e.g., AI chatbots in service roles).
  • Balancing predictive AI (for efficiency/stability) versus generative AI (for creative variety), sequencing tools strategically, and treating AI as a portfolio of decisions.
  • Shifting professional-services differentiation toward human judgment, empathy, and client relationships as AI commoditizes analytics.
  • Validating customer needs rigorously amid entrepreneurial AI competition.

Leaders are urged to foster curiosity, clarify human–AI roles, prioritize cognitive engagement, and reorganize around platforms rather than isolated tools.

Macro Backdrop: Steady Growth with Divergent Risks

The IMF’s January 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projects global growth at 3.3% in 2026 (and 3.2% in 2027), a slight upward revision, driven by technology investment, fiscal/monetary support, accommodative conditions, and private-sector adaptability offsetting trade-policy headwinds. Inflation continues declining (though U.S. progress is slower). Downside risks center on tech-expectation reevaluations and geopolitical escalation. Policymakers should rebuild fiscal buffers and pursue structural reforms—directly relevant for corporate planning and capital allocation. Complementary outlooks from McKinsey, Deloitte, and others echo cautious optimism amid tariffs, AI spending surges, and supply-chain shifts, with CFOs flagging tariffs, demand, labor skills, and inflation as top 2026 concerns.

Academic Rigor from NBER: Policy Transmission and Corporate Dynamics

NBER’s 2025 Summer Institute and Fall program meetings (Corporate Finance, Monetary Economics) delivered working papers on monetary-policy transmission through nonbank lending, financial dominance via corporate leverage, executive compensation, and dollarization trends—providing rigorous foundations for understanding how policy, capital structure, and global finance intersect with business strategy.

Implications for Leaders

These 2025–2026 studies converge on a clear mandate: treat AI as a transformation engine (not a bolt-on tool), prioritize workflow redesign and human–AI collaboration, double down on digitization and customer focus in finance/banking, and build resilience against macro volatility. High performers combine bold ambition with disciplined execution and risk governance. Organizations ignoring these signals risk ceding ground to agile disruptors in an era where money, strategy, and technology are more intertwined than ever.The research momentum shows no signs of slowing—2026 promises even deeper dives into agentic AI ROI, sustainable-finance integration, and policy responses to geopolitical fragmentation.

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